Every energy transition is a commodity story. The shift to electrification is no exception, and it places Africa — home to a substantial share of the world's cobalt, lithium, manganese and platinum-group metals — at the centre of a contest it has been at the edge of before.
The familiar pattern
History offers a warning. For a century, Africa's resource wealth has too often left the continent as raw ore, returning as finished goods at many times the value. The economic gains — refining, manufacturing, the jobs and tax base they create — accrued elsewhere.
Resource endowment is an opportunity. Value capture is a policy choice.
What capturing value requires
- Power. Refining and processing are energy-intensive. Reliable, affordable electricity is the binding constraint.
- Coordination. Value chains cross borders; the AfCFTA framework matters here as much as any mining code.
- Patience. Industrial capability is built over decades, not investment cycles.
A different ending?
There are early signs — battery-precursor plans, regional processing agreements, a sharper negotiating posture from resource-rich governments — that this cycle could end differently. Whether it does will be one of the defining economic questions of the decade.